LEGALIZING MEDICAL CANNABIS AND AVOIDING ILLICIT MARKETS IN NIGERIA: A TRIPARTITE CASE STUDY ANALYSIS TOWARDS ACHIEVING AN EFFECTIVE MARKET MODEL

Abstract

As Nigeria contemplates the legalization of medical cannabis to unlock its therapeutic and economic potential, it is imperative to learn from the experiences of pioneering nations. This paper conducts a comparative analysis of three distinct regulatory models—Canada’s comprehensive federal legalization, the Netherlands’ pragmatic tolerance through its coffee shop system, and the United States’ fragmented state-by-state approach—to dissect the persistent drivers and adaptive practices of illicit cannabis providers. Despite the establishment of legal medical and, in some cases, recreational markets, illicit operators have demonstrated remarkable resilience. The paper argues that their persistence is not a failure of legalization per se, but a direct consequence of specific policy designs that create competitive advantages for the illegal market. Through a detailed examination of the regulatory gaps and consumer preferences, the paper illuminates why illicit markets endure. It recommends a distinct pathway for the legalization of cannabis in Nigeria arising the different models of the three countries examined, to avoid the pitfalls inherent in their individual models. For Nigeria, the lessons are clear: a successful medical cannabis program must be deliberately designed to outcompete the illicit market from the outset. This requires a careful balancing act—implementing smart tax policies to ensure price competitiveness, creating inclusive and accessible regulatory frameworks that do not exclude small-scale farmers or patients, ensuring comprehensive product and geographic coverage, and learning from the enforcement pitfalls of the case studies.