BUILDING RESILIENT ECONOMIES THROUGH INTEGRATION INTO THE BRICS+ FRAMEWORK IN A DYNAMIC GLOBAL LANDSCAPE: A SCENARIO-BASED PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF EECME INTEGRATION PATHWAYS

Abstract

This paper investigates the strategic prospects for Eastern European countries to recalibrate their global alignments by engaging more deeply with the BRICS bloc. While historically integrated with the EU, many Eastern European economies face vulnerabilities stemming from overdependence on Western markets, limited diversification, and geopolitical volatility. Through a scenario-based analysis, this study evaluates four potential pathways with BRICS engagement: full integration, limited engagement, selective strategic partnerships, and geopolitical realignment under crisis. Findings suggest that a selective partnership approach offers the highest probability of success, allowing Eastern Europe to diversify economically while maintaining stability within existing Western alliances. Ultimately, the paper argues that a balanced engagement with BRICS could position the region as a strategic intermediary between East and West, fostering growth, resilience, and contributing to an emerging multipolar global order.