Performer selection in Human Reliability analysis: D numbers approach

Jie Zhao, Yong Deng


Dependence assessment among human errors in human reliability analysis (HRA) is an significant issue. Many previous works discussed the factors influencing the dependence level but failed to discuss how these factors like "similarity of performers" determine the final result. In this paper, the influence of performers on HRA is focused, in addition, a new way of D numbers which is usually used to handle with the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problems is introduced as well to determine the optimal performer. Experimental result demonstrates the validity of proposed methods in choosing the best performers with lowest the conditional human error probability (CHEP) under the same circumstance.


Human reliability analysis (HRA), D numbers, D-S evidence theory, multiple criteria decision making (MCDM), nuclear power plant

Full Text:



Carvalho, P. V.; Dos Santos, I. L.; Vidal, M. C. (2006). Safety implications of cultural and cognitive issues in nuclear power plant operation, Applied Ergonomics, 37(2), 211-223, 2006.

Cepin, M. (2008). Importance of human contribution within the human reliability analysis (ijs-hra), Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 21(3), 268-276, 2008.

Chen, L.; Deng, X. (2018). A modified method for evaluating sustainable transport solutions based on ahp and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Applied Sciences, 8(4), Article ID 563, 2018.

Chen, L.; Deng, Y. (2018). A new failure mode and effects analysis model using Dempster- Shafer evidence theory and grey relational projection method, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 76, 13-20, 2018.

Cooper, S. E.; Ramey-Smith, A.; Wreathall, J.; Parry, G. (1996). A technique for human error analysis (atheana). Technical report, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States). Div. of Systems Technology; Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Science Applications International Corp., Reston, VA (United States); NUS Corp., Gaithersburg, MD (United States).

Cui, H.; Liu, Q.; Zhang, J.; Kang, B. (2019). An improved deng entropy and its application in pattern recognition, IEEE Access, 7, 18284-18292, 2019.

Dempster, A. P. (2008). Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping, In Classic Works of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions, 57-72. Springer, 2008.

Deng, X.; Jiang, W. (2019). D number theory based game-theoretic framework in adversarial decision making under a fuzzy environment, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 106, 194-213, 2019.

Deng, X.; Jiang, W.; Wang, Z. (2019). Zero-sum polymatrix games with link uncertainty: A Dempster-Shafer theory solution, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 340, 101-112, 2019.

Deng, Y. (2012). D numbers: Theory and applications, Journal of Information & Computational Science, 9(9), 2421-2428, 2012.

Dong, Y.; Zhang, J.; Li, Z.; Hu, Y.; Deng, Y. (2019). Combination of evidential sensor reports with distance function and belief entropy in fault diagnosis, International Journal of Computers Communications & Control, 14(3), 293-307, 2019.

Dzitac, I.; Filip, F. G.; Manolescu, M.-J. (2017). Fuzzy logic is not fuzzy: World-renowned computer scientist Lotfi A. Zadeh, International Journal of Computers Communications & Control, 12(6), 748-789, 2017.

Fei, L.; Deng, Y. (2019). A new divergence measure for basic probability assignment and its applications in extremely uncertain environments, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 34(4), 584-600, 2019.

Fei, L.; Deng, Y.; Hu, Y. (2019). DS-VIKOR: A New Multi-criteria Decision-Making Method for Supplier Selection, International Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 21(1), 157-175, 2019.

Gao, X.; Deng, Y. (2019). The generalization negation of probability distribution and its application in target recognition based on sensor fusion, International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, 15(5), 2019.

Gao, X.; Deng, Y. (2019). The negation of basic probability assignment, IEEE Access, 7(1), 10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2901932, 2019.

Gertman, D.; Blackman, H.; Marble, J.; Byers, J.; Smith, C. et al. (2005). The spar-h human reliability analysis method, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 2005.

Guan, X.; Liu, H.; Yi, X.; Zhao, J. (2018). The Improved Combination Rule of D Numbers and Its Application in Radiation Source Identification, Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2018.

Han, Y.; Deng, Y. (2018). An evidential fractal ahp target recognition method, Defence Science Journal, 68(4), 367-373, 2018.

Han, Y.; Deng, Y. (2019). A novel matrix game with payoffs of Maxitive Belief Structure, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 34(4), 690-706, 2019.

Jiang, W. (2018). A correlation coefficient for belief functions, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 103, 94-106, 2018.

Jiang, W.; Huang, C. (2018). A multi-criteria decision-making model for evaluating suppliers in green SCM, International Journal of Computers Communications & Control, 13(3), 337- 352, 2018.

Jiang, W.; Wang, S. (2017). An uncertainty measure for interval-valued evidences, International Journal of Computers, Communications & Control, 12(5), 2017.

Kang, B.; Deng, Y.; Hewage, K.; Sadiq, R. (2019). A method of measuring uncertainty for Z-number, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 27(4), 731-738, 2019.

Kang, B.; Zhang, P.; Gao, Z.; Chhipi-Shrestha, G.; Hewage, K.; Sadiq, R. (2019). Environmental assessment under uncertainty using Dempster-Shafer theory and z-numbers, pages Published online, doi: 10.1007/s12652-019-01228-y, 2019.

Kirwan, B. (1996). The validation of three human reliability quantification techniques - THERP, HEART and JHEDI: Part 1 - technique descriptions and validation issues, Applied ergonomics, 27(6), 359-373, 1996.

Kontogiannis, T.; Malakis, S. (2009). A proactive approach to human error detection and identification in aviation and air traffic control, Safety Science, 47(5), 693-706, 2009.

Lester, R. K.; McCabe, M. J. (1993). The effect of industrial structure on learning by doing in nuclear power plant operation, The Rand Journal of Economics, 418-438, 1993.

Li, M.; Zhang, Q.; Deng, Y. (2018). Evidential identification of influential nodes in network of networks, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 117, 283-296, 2018.

Li, X.; Chen, X. (2018). D-intuitionistic hesitant fuzzy sets and their application in multiple attribute decision making, Cognitive Computation, 10(3), 496-505, 2018.

Li, Y.; Deng, Y. (2018). Generalized ordered propositions fusion based on belief entropy, International Journal of Computers Communications & Control, 13(5), 792-807, 2018.

Li, Y.; Deng, Y. (2019). TDBF: Two Dimension Belief Function, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 34, 10.1002/int.22135, 2019.

Lin, S.; Li, C.; Xu, F.; Liu, D.; Liu, J. (2018). Risk identification and analysis for new energy power system in China based on D numbers and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), Journal of Cleaner Production, 180, 81-96, 2018.

Liu, H.; Dzitac, I.; Guo, S. (2018). Reduction of conditional factors in causal analysis, International Journal of Computers, Communications & Control, 13(3), 2018.

Meng, D.; Liu, M.; Yang, S.; Zhang, H.; Ding, R. (2018). A fluid-structure analysis approach and its application in the uncertainty-based multidisciplinary design and optimization for blades, Advances in Mechanical Engineering, 10(6),, 2018.

Pan, L.; Deng, Y. (2018). A New Belief Entropy to Measure Uncertainty of Basic Probability Assignments Based on Belief Function and Plausibility Function, Entropy, 20(11), 842, 2018.

Paté-Cornell, E. (2012). On black swans and perfect storms: risk analysis and management when statistics are not enough, Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 32(11), 1823-1833, 2012.

Pelusi, D.; Mascella, R.; Tallini, L. (2017). Revised gravitational search algorithms based on evolutionary-fuzzy systems, Algorithms, 10(2), 44, 2017.

Pelusi, D.; Mascella, R.; Tallini, L. (2018). A fuzzy gravitational search algorithm to design optimal iir filters. Energies, 11(4), 736, 2018.

Pelusi, D.; Mascella, R.; Tallini, L.; Nayak, J.; Naik, B.;Abraham, A. (2018). Neural network and fuzzy system for the tuning of gravitational search algorithm parameters, Expert Systems with Applications, 102, 234-244, 2018.

Rong, H.; Ge, M.; Zhang, G.; Zhu, M. (2018). An approach for detecting fault lines in a small current grounding system using fuzzy reasoning spiking neural P systems, International Journal of Computers Communications & Control, 13(4), 521-536, 2018.

Shafer, G. (1976). A mathematical theory of evidence, Vol. 42. Princeton University Press, 1976.

Shankar, R.; Choudhary, D.; Jharkharia, S. (2018). An integrated risk assessment model: A case of sustainable freight transportation systems, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 63, 662-676, 2018.

Shorrock, S. T.; Kirwan, B. (2002). Development and application of a human error identification tool for air traffic control, Applied ergonomics, 33(4), 319-336, 2002.

Song, Y.; Deng, Y. (2019). A new method to measure the divergence in evidential sensor data fusion, International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, 15(4), 2019.

Su, X.; Li, L.; Shi, F.; Qian, H. (2018). Research on the fusion of dependent evidence based on mutual information, IEEE Access, 6, 71839-71845, 2018.

Su, X.; Mahadevan, S.; Xu, P.; Deng, Y. (2015). Dependence assessment in human reliability analysis using evidence theory and AHP, Risk Analysis, 35(7), 1296-1316, 2015.

Sun, R.; Deng, Y. (2019). A new method to identify incomplete frame of discernment in evidence theory, IEEE Access, 7(1), 15547-15555, 2019.

Sun, R.; Deng, Y. (2019). A new method to determine generalized basic probability assignment in the open world, IEEE Access, 7(1), 52827-52835, 2019.

Swain, A. (1964). Therp technique for human error rate prediction, In Proceedings of the Symposium on Quantification of Human Performance, Albuquerque, 1964.

Swain, A. D. (1990). Human reliability analysis: Need, status, trends and limitations, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 29(3), 301-313, 1990.

Wang, J.; Qiao, K.; Zhang, Z. (2019). An improvement for combination rule in evidence theory, Future Generation Computer Systems, 91, 1-9, 2019.

Xiao, F. (2018). A hybrid fuzzy soft sets decision making method in medical diagnosis, IEEE Access, 6, 25300-25312, 2018.

Xiao, F. (2018). A novel multi-criteria decision making method for assessing health-care waste treatment technologies based on D numbers, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 71(2018), 216-225, 2018.

Xiao, F. (2019). Multi-sensor data fusion based on the belief divergence measure of evidences and the belief entropy, Information Fusion, 46, 23-32, 2019.

Xiao, F. (2019). A multiple criteria decision-making method based on D numbers and belief entropy, International Journal of Fuzzy Systems, DOI: 10.1007/s40815-019-00620-2, 2019.

Xiao, F.; Ding, W. (2019). Divergence measure of Pythagorean fuzzy sets and its application in medical diagnosis, Applied Soft Computing, 254-267, 2019.

Xu, H.; Deng, Y. (2019). Dependent Evidence Combination Based on DEMATEL Method, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 1555-1571, 2019.

Yager, R. R. (2012). On z-valuations using zadeh's z-numbers, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 27(3), 259-278, 2012.

Yager, R. R. (2018). Fuzzy rule bases with generalized belief structure inputs, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 72, 93-98, 2018.

Yager, R. R.; Alajlan, N. (2017). Maxitive Belief Structures and Imprecise Possibility Distributions, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 25(4), 768-774, 2017.

Yang, H.; Deng, Y.; Jones, J. (2018). Network division method based on cellular growth and physarum-inspired network adaptation. International Journal of Unconventional Computing, 13(6), 477-491, 2018.

Yin, L.; Deng, Y. (2018). Toward uncertainty of weighted networks: An entropy-based model, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 508, 176-186, 2018.

Zadeh, L. A. (1965). Fuzzy sets. Information and control, 8(3), 338-353, 1965.

Zadeh, L. A. (2019). Preliminary draft notes on a similarity-based analysis of time-series with applications to prediction, decision and diagnostics, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 34(1), 107-113, 2019.

Zheng, X.; Deng, Y. (2018). Dependence assessment in human reliability analysis based on evidence credibility decay model and iowa operator, Annals of Nuclear Energy, 112, 673-684, 2018.

Zhou, M.; Liu, X.-B.; Chen, Y.-W.; Yang, J.-B. (2018). Evidential reasoning rule for MADM with both weights and reliabilities in group decision making, Knowledge-Based Systems, 143, 142-161, 2018.

Zhou, M.; Liu, X.-B.; Yang, J.-B.; Chen, Y.-W.; Wu, J. (2019). Evidential reasoning approach with multiple kinds of attributes and entropy-based weight assignment, Knowledge- Based Systems, 163, 358-375, 2019.

Zhou, M.; Liu, X.; Yang, J. (2017). Evidential reasoning approach for MADM based on incomplete interval value, Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 33(6), 3707-3721, 2017.

Zhou, X.; Hu, Y.; Deng, Y.; Chan, F, T. S.; Ishizaka, A. (2018). A DEMATEL-Based Completion Method for Incomplete Pairwise Comparison Matrix in AHP, Annals of Operations Research, 271(2), 1045-1066, 2018.

Zio, E. (2009). Reliability engineering: Old problems and new challenges, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 94(2), 125-141, 2009.

Zio, E.; Baraldi, P.; Librizzi, M.; Podofillini, L.; Dang, V. N. (2009). A fuzzy set-based approach for modeling dependence among human errors, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 160(13), 1947-1964, 2009.


Copyright (c) 2019 Jie Zhao, Yong Deng

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

IJCCC is an Open Access Journal : CC-BY-NC.

Articles published in IJCCC user license are protected by copyright.

Users can access, download, copy, translate the IJCCC articles for non-commercial purposes provided that users, but cannot redistribute, display or adapt:

  • Cite the article using an appropriate bibliographic citation: author(s), article title, journal, volume, issue, page numbers, year of publication, DOI, and the link to the definitive published version on IJCCC website;
  • Maintain the integrity of the IJCCC article;
  • Retain the copyright notices and links to these terms and conditions so it is clear to other users what can and what cannot be done with the  article;
  • Ensure that, for any content in the IJCCC article that is identified as belonging to a third party, any re-use complies with the copyright policies of that third party;
  • Any translations must prominently display the statement: "This is an unofficial translation of an article that appeared in IJCCC. Agora University  has not endorsed this translation."

This is a non commercial license where the use of published articles for commercial purposes is forbiden. 

Commercial purposes include: 

  • Copying or downloading IJCCC articles, or linking to such postings, for further redistribution, sale or licensing, for a fee;
  • Copying, downloading or posting by a site or service that incorporates advertising with such content;
  • The inclusion or incorporation of article content in other works or services (other than normal quotations with an appropriate citation) that is then available for sale or licensing, for a fee;
  • Use of IJCCC articles or article content (other than normal quotations with appropriate citation) by for-profit organizations for promotional purposes, whether for a fee or otherwise;
  • Use for the purposes of monetary reward by means of sale, resale, license, loan, transfer or other form of commercial exploitation;

    The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.

[End of CC-BY-NC  License for Website User]

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMPUTERS COMMUNICATIONS & CONTROL (IJCCC), With Emphasis on the Integration of Three Technologies (C & C & C),  ISSN 1841-9836.

IJCCC was founded in 2006,  at Agora University, by  Ioan DZITAC (Editor-in-Chief),  Florin Gheorghe FILIP (Editor-in-Chief), and  Misu-Jan MANOLESCU (Managing Editor).

Ethics: This journal is a member of, and subscribes to the principles of, the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE).

Ioan  DZITAC (Editor-in-Chief) at COPE European Seminar, Bruxelles, 2015:

IJCCC is covered/indexed/abstracted in Science Citation Index Expanded (since vol.1(S),  2006); JCR2018: IF=1.585..

IJCCC is indexed in Scopus from 2008 (CiteScore2018 = 1.56):

Nomination by Elsevier for Journal Excellence Award Romania 2015 (SNIP2014 = 1.029): Elsevier/ Scopus

IJCCC was nominated by Elsevier for Journal Excellence Award - "Scopus Awards Romania 2015" (SNIP2014 = 1.029).

IJCCC is in Top 3 of 157 Romanian journals indexed by Scopus (in all fields) and No.1 in Computer Science field by Elsevier/ Scopus.


 Impact Factor in JCR2018 (Clarivate Analytics/SCI Expanded/ISI Web of Science): IF=1.585 (Q3). Scopus: CiteScore2018=1.56 (Q2);

SCImago Journal & Country Rank

Editors-in-Chief: Ioan DZITAC & Florin Gheorghe FILIP.